Several thoughts surfaced as I wrote my cover story this month: that so-called unlikely or extreme examples of risk happen more frequently than we’d care to admit, and secondly, that a lack of imagination is usually the culprit when it comes to inadequate risk planning and mitigation.

These past few years seem like a proliferation of anomalies-all of which, by the way, impacted supply chains. Crude oil prices have been on a wild ride, starting in January 2007 at $51 a barrel and skyrocketing to $145 in July 2008, then dropping to $36 a barrel in January 2009 before doubling to its current price around $76 a barrel. The global economy has suffered the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Meanwhile, on the natural disaster front, we’ve experienced one of history’s deadliest earthquakes in Haiti and the largest shut down of air traffic since World War II due to the eruption of Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull volcano.

On the outset, these events appear to be more one-of-a-kind than run-of-the-mill. But, I’m starting to doubt that assessment.

A blog posted on the Harvard Business Review site in January talked about the American pragmatist philosopher Charles Sanders Peirce, who was the first to point out that no new idea in the world was ever produced by inductive or deductive logic. In other words, analyzing the past and using data to make a decision about the future is not only limiting when it comes to decision-making, it can be dangerous when it comes to risk planning.

This is where imagination comes into play. Imagination is necessary not only for dreaming up the ‘what ifs,’ but for putting together a sound businesses continuity plan.

Recently, a program on the History Channel discussed the solar superstorm that occurred in August-September 1859, known as the Carrington Event. Telegraph wires in both the U.S. and Europe spontaneously shorted out, causing numerous fires, while the Northern Lights were seen as far south as Cuba.

A report by the National Academy of Sciences states that if a similar storm occurred today, it could cause $1 to 2 trillion in damages and take up to ten years for recovery. Furthermore, it would cause a catastrophic failure in communication and navigation systems (air traffic control, GPS, Internet, cell phones, radio/TV), computers, banking and financial markets/trading, and electric grids.

Well, an international panel of scientists is predicting the next solar superstorm could be just a few years away. According to panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, “The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013.” For what it’s worth, some scientists, including Mausumi Dikpati of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), are forecasting the Solar Max to occur in 2012, while David Hathaway of the National Space Science & Technology Center (NSSTC) believes it will arrive sooner, in 2010 or 2011.

Take this as a friendly advance warning.

Enjoy the read (if you dare).