Good news for U.S. manufacturers doing business in Eastern and Central Europe surfaced recently as global sourcing analysts forecasted double-digit transport growth in the region. According to The Colography Group, Inc., Eastern Europe is one of nine "world areas" that will report the fastest growth rate-10.2%-in air export tonnage. Less encouraging, however, was the view that Western Europe would remain flat.

"Eastern and Central Europe are emerging as great success stories," says Ted Scherck, president of the Atlanta-based consultancy. "But the overall figures still portray an industry struggling with the impact of global recession."

Air freight in the transatlantic will continue to show sub-par growth during 2003, with growth rates in ocean freight expected to exceed air freight expansion for the first time in the 13 years. Transatlantic vessel tonnage is expected to grow by 4.9 percent in 2003, matching the growth of the overall market.

Slightly more than 11 trillion tons will be shipped internationally this year. Of that, 10.98 trillion pounds will move via ocean, compared to 10.46 trillion pounds in 2002. The balance, 52 trillion pounds, will move by air, an increase from 50.9 trillion pounds air-shipped in 2002.

Optimistic Germans

Water gateways feeding Eastern and Central Europe should also have a good year, say trade analysts, who add that the Baltic nations are generating new opportunity for American industry. "U.S. manufacturers must not have any fear when using European seaports," says Dr. Juergen Sorgenfrei, chairman, Port of Hamburg Marketing Association. He adds, that while Bremen does handle some U.S. and British military ordinance, both ports are "doing business as usual." Sorgenfrei says, "There is no change to be noticed since the beginning of the war with Iraq."

In an interview with World Trade, Sorgenfrei also emphasized that despite the diplomatic tensions between the governments of the U.S. and Germany, the commercial links remain strong. "The Hamburg port industry and [local] government have an excellent relationship with their American partners," he says. "We do not see any need for repair."

Indeed, the port is forecasting an increase in container traffic on the North Atlantic route because of new carrier alliances. The beginning of this year brought another robust increase in cargo volume handled in the Port of Hamburg reaching a plus in container traffic of 16 percent.

"Growth is mainly coming from two strong developing market regions," says Sorgenfrei. "One is China and the other region is the Baltic Sea region with states such as Russia, Finland, the Baltic States, Poland and Scandinavian States."

Having handled seaborne cargoes totaling approx. 97 million tons and around 5,4 million containers in the last year, the Port of Hamburg once again anticipates a record figures for the year 2003.

Rare opportunity

Manufacturers seeking information on prospects in the "New Europe," received some more heartening news from political analysts too. As a consequence of Prime Minister Blair's standing shoulder to shoulder with President Bush since September 11, 2001, British prestige and power on the world stage has been immeasurably enhanced. Great Britain is viewed unquestionably by Washington as its most important ally, politically, strategically and militarily and is seen as the keystone of the "coalition of the willing" formed to unseat Saddam Hussein.

"The British Prime Minister is able to wield more influence in Washington than the leaders of France, Germany and Russia combined," say Nile Gardiner and John Hulsman, trade and policy analysts with The Heritage Foundation. The current division in Europe offers London and Washington a rare opportunity to shape the destiny of the continent, they add.

The Heritage Foundation, a conservative Washington, D.C. think tank, maintains that the debate over Iraq is as much about the future of Europe as it is about the future of the Middle East. "What we are witnessing today is a battle for the heart and soul of the European continent," say analysts. With the support of the Spaniards, Poles and other nations of Eastern and Central Europe about to enter the European Union, America and Britain must present a new vision for Europe. "The grandiose dream of a united federal Europe, so beloved of French and German strategists, must be firmly rejected," say Gardiner and Hulsman. "In its place, Washington and London must call for a flexible Europe, united by a common heritage and culture, but which maintains the principle of national sovereignty at its core."

Sidebar: Germany, UK, and France Drive Transatlantic Real Estate Growth

Three of the top five nations in global real estate value are served by transatlantic sourcing. According to ResearchWorldwide.com, a commercial real estate information portal, the United States, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom and France have 70 percent of the global commercial real estate market. By including the next five countries-Italy, Canada, Spain, China and Mexico-the top 10 countries comprise 82 percent (US$ 10,217 billion) of the global commercial real estate market of US$ 13,000 billion.

"The top 10 countries could see changing market share in the future as emerging countries, like China, with high growth economies, have high real estate development growth rates," say ResearchWorldwide.com spokesmen.

Country .... US$ bn .... Country Market Share
1. United States .... 4540 .... 36.4%
2. Japan .... 1915 .... 15.3%
3. Germany .... 872 .... 7.0%
4. United Kingdom .... 830 .... 6.7%
5. France .... 615 .... 4.9%
6. Italy .... 506 .... 4.1%
7. Canada .... 320 .... 2.6%
8. Spain .... 251 .... 2.0%
9. China .... 186 .... 1.5%
10. Mexico .... 182 .... 1.5%

Source: Prudential Real Estate Investors