San Francisco--Bechtel's public relations and press representatives were predictably wary of our initial attempts to dig into the corporation's global engineering strategy. Once we made it clear, however, that our mandate is to demonstrate how bold actions abroad spell greater prosperity at home, we had an open channel to tell our story.

U.S. manufacturers are also poised to take advantage of overseas investment opportunities, and it's providing fresh optimism for an economic rebound. An informal survey conducted by the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) of its members indicates that there's an upward trend in orders. A full 40 percent of respondents reported increasing orders late last spring, and only 24 percent reported falling orders.

This is a significant improvement from a similar NAM survey conducted earlier in the year, says the organization's chief economist David Huether, noting that back then 56 percent of responding NAM member companies reported monthly declining orders.

The NAM outlook paper concludes that forces are aligning for faster economic growth for the rest of the year. "An analysis of the mixed positive and negative forces impacting manufacturing suggests that low inventories, improving credit conditions, lower energy prices, a more competitive dollar exchange rate, increased defense spending, and tax cuts will improve business and manufacturing in the months ahead," says NAM president, Jerry Jasinowski. "A reduction in business uncertainty and sharply higher consumer confidence will also improve the economic environment."

NAM economists are predicting that the investment recovery that began in 2002 will soon be back on track, stimulating exports, and boosting consumers' spending power. Consequently, they say, GDP growth will accelerate from 1.7 percent in the first half to 3.9 percent in the second half.

Due to currency shifts, though, our European trading partners are facing a different set of challenges. And not just in heavy industrial purchases, either.

When examining the other extreme in consumer spending-that of luxury items, for example-we can see that their business leaders are also championing expansion. "You don't cost-cut your way to prosperity for shareholders," says Johann Rupert, chairman of Zurich-based Compagnie Financier Richemont. "You've got to grow." Richemont, maker for Mont Blanc pens, Cartier watches, and Dunhill lighters, was hit not only by the fallen U.S. dollar, but other economic forces that put a damper on international travel. This includes buying at duty free shops.

Earlier this summer, the company's CEO retired, leaving Richemont vulnerable, but also poised for reinvention. In an interview with the New York Times, Rupert disclosed that he would take a hands-on management role even if it means asking more from its workers. "Cowboys don't cry," he says of the change, adding, "when contentment sets in progress goes out the window."

WORLD TRADE applauds this attitude, and trusts that manufacturers big and small will adjust to the new economic dynamic reshaping our global marketplace.

Best regards,

Patrick Burnson, Editor in Chief
PatrickB@worldtrademag.com

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