Occasionally, though, there are moments of transparency when world traders-big and small alike-are well advised to keep their eyes wide open.
We're at one of those inflection points right now, with the naming of a new U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), the head of the office charged with negotiating and implementing the thousand-and-one details that comprise a U.S. trade pact.
Rob Portman, a six-term Congressman from Cincinnati, Ohio, was named the next USTR in mid-March by the President (to succeed the well respected Robert B. Zoellick, who becomes deputy secretary of state). He's very much a Republican insider-described by Bush as a "longtime friend" and a critical White House point man on Capitol Hill. Boiled down to its essence, his appointment sends a clear signal that this administration intends to mobilize political clout to continue expanding the boundaries of tariff-free world trade.
The President said as much by citing the "bold agenda" awaiting Portman-guiding regional trade agreements through Congress (notably the controversial Central American Free Trade Agreement treaty) and jump-starting the stalled Doha Round of WTO negotiations (which will require the U.S. to shrink agricultural subsidies to its farmers).
As I write this, the most serious trade friction in a long time is escalating between the United States and the European Union as each charges the other with subsidizing its national aircraft manufacturer, Boeing and Airbus respectively, in violation of WTO rules. Although this fight was not of his making, how it gets resolved under Portman's watch will go a long way in determining his success as USTR.
Calming turbulent waters is particularly important to the trade approach this administration favors. The strategy under Clinton's administration, as I learned in conversation a while back with its USTR Mickey Kantor, was on forging inter-connectedness within the context of multi-national organizations operating under shared rules of law. The Bush administration, say its critics, tilts in a different direction, toward bi-lateral rather than global agreements, agreements typically favorable to the United States. "The President believes international organizations have failed largely," summarized the Wall Street Journal recently, "and must be challenged and reformed."
As I mentioned, trade politics doesn't make for compelling reading. 'The devil,' they say, 'is in the details' and few details are more devilish than those in a trade treaty. But, as successful world traders know, the odds shift in favor of those who can read the tea leaves in advance. The appointment of Rob Portman portends, a sign that there's going to be an extended bull market for U.S. manufacturers in foreign direct investment and trade.


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