Latin American Trade Today



[Editor's Note: This article was adapted from a speech by Ann Saccomano before the American Institute for Shippers Associations in Washington, DC.]

Latin America is going to hell in a handbasket, or so it would seem. Look at the evidence. Argentina was supposed to be the model economy and now it's in financial ruin. Brazil may default at any minute. Colombia is fighting a 38-year-old civil war. In Venezuela, President Hugo Chavez was ousted for two days in a military coup before he was reinstated.

Despite such travails it would be a mistake to write off this region. Latin America is the fastest-growing market for U.S. goods and services. It buys more than a third of U.S. exports and receives a quarter of our foreign investment.

The fact is Latin America has made tremendous progress over the past two decades. Think back 25 years ago. You may have read something about Argentina's quadruple-digit inflation rate. Today it's 26 percent.

Today many of these countries have achieved some kind of political stability. The civil wars in Central America ended and Argentina and Chile now have democratic governments. NAFTA turned Mexico into an integral part of the North American economy.

The truth is, Latin America isn't a single country or culture. The term itself often refers not just to the countries of Central and South America but to the Caribbean states. That's nearly 40 countries. Clearly, one size does not fit all.

Why do Latin countries seem to soar one minute and crash the next? The long answer involves a discussion of International Monetary Fund policies and various forms of political corruption.

Argentina's current crisis is a case in point. That country has been in some kind of economic upheaval for most of the last century.

Excessive foreign borrowing and government overspending had created an inflation rate that soared to 1,000 percent. Belt-tightening and other measures--like pegging the peso to the dollar--helped to stabilize the economy at least for a while.

But the underlying problems continued. What was especially destructive was the practice of allowing the provincial governments to spend freely with the assurance that the federal government would pick up the tab.

The result is that Argentina will chalk up 2002 as its fifth straight year of recession. The peso has lost 74 percent of its value since it was allowed to float. Shortages are so acute that Brazil is donating insulin to Argentina's diabetics.

This crisis has been building for the past year. For a long time it looked as if this economic contagion would not spread to other countries. That changed in mid-June when Brazil's financial markets became increasingly volatile.

Argentina's drop in purchasing power is eating into Brazil's export trade and sending foreign investors running for the hills. This in turn makes it hard for Brazil to service its $290 billion public debt. That's why we're reading that Brazil may default.

This time, unlike in years past, Argentina's predicament isn't getting much sympathy from the international community. U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill has said several times that Argentina should be left alone to solve its own problems.

Argentina doesn't agree. Its leaders are asking the International Monetary Fund for $20 billion in aid. So far it hasn't gotten anything although negotiations are supposedly in the works.

Argentina may become a referendum on IMF policies. The Fund was deeply involved in the restructuring of the Latin economies in the 1980s. Critics said it did more harm than good by imposing draconian conditions that suppressed growth. Supporters said the IMF chose the only reasonable solution.

Maybe this time we'll find out who's right. It appears the IMF's strategy is to leave Argentina alone while giving plenty of love and affection to those around it. Remember, Argentina defaulted in December, 2001, and it still can't get anyone at the World Bank or IMF to return a phone call. But as soon as Brazil so much as sneezed, the IMF forked over a $10 billion loan. Then it turned around gave Uruguay an extra $1.5 billion in loans.

The Argentine economy is already a disaster for its citizens and we don't know yet if it will be a disaster for the region. But its resolution will tell us a lot about how the international community plans to cope with this type of crisis in the future.

What's odd about all this is that foreign firms in Argentina aren't rushing to get out. One auto industry supplier says his company is actually considering adding more manufacturing capacity to its Argentine plant. With the peso so low manufacturing goods for export is a great way to save money.

The person who sums it up best is Steve Lichter, vice president of international manufacturing for Abbott Laboratories: "Last year it was Turkey. This year it's Argentina," he says.

His point was clear. This is about risk management. One country may be in the tank, but another one is soaring and the others are somewhere in between. If the risk manager does a good job, the overall result is a profit.

This approach is the only way to survive in Latin America. A company that uses its resources looking to break into a hot economy and then pull out once it cools down will spend more money than it could ever hope to make.

Such a strategy would not do much good in the long run, anyway. Countries don't compete as individuals anymore but as trade blocs. So even if you're not doing business directly in Latin America, you will certainly be doing business indirectly.

That's because there is a huge trade initiative that is already in the works that will dwarf even NAFTA. It's the "Free Trade Area of the Americas." This accord will cover 34 countries in the hemisphere, including the U.S., Canada and Mexico.

This accord would create one of the largest free trade zones ever. It would cover 800 million people and generate trade flows of $800 billion.

In comparison, the European Union has only 15 member countries, and population of 380 million people, or less than half of the Americas zone.

But even a trade accord of this size will not dispel a growing uneasiness in the Latin community about this country's free trade intentions. It's true that North and Latin Americans can do a lot of finger-pointing about who has the most unfriendly trade posture.

But in my reporting on this subject I'm struck by how angry Latins are about what they perceive to be anti-trade legislation, specifically the agricultural subsidy bill and steel tariff.

An Argentine friend of mine told me, "America wants free trade as long as it's from everyone else."

The Mexican truck issue encapsulates their frustration. Regardless of whether you believe Mexican truckers pose a safety or economic threat to this country, the fact is the United States of America signed on the dotted line. We agreed to the terms of NAFTA and one of those terms was a provision in which we put out a "Welcome" mat for Mexico's truckers. The time came and we yanked it out from under them.

This wrangling left a bad taste in everyone's mouth. Even worse, it chipped away at our government's credibility in trade negotiations. This is why it's important for people to become familiar with new trade agreements before they become law.

There is always a lot of talk in international circles about "getting to know the culture." It's also important to be good to the culture. The reason why riots broke out in Peru is because many Latins are afraid their countries will become national sweatshops in service to wealthy foreigners.

As Latin countries privatize their infrastructure it's foreign interests who are buying it. Latins are worried that foreign control could jeopardize their economic future. These fears may or may not be justified, but they must be addressed.

The river runs both ways. This hemisphere is becoming increasingly interdependent, whether we realize it or not. The distinctions between North, Central and South America are fading fast. Soon we will just be "The Americas."

Latin America, despite its turbulent history and current crises, continues to evolve into a free-market and democratic region.

We ignore it at our own peril.

A final point is that Latin America holds a wealth opportunities for those people who are committed to it. If you're going into this region, then the best advice is to put one foot in front of the other, just keep on going and don't look back.

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