No matter how well you plan and prepare and organize, in the end seasoned executives know that the one sure thing they can count on is the unexpected. Management theorists have cloaked this humbling truth in more elegant language, "the law of unexpected consequences." Sometimes, however, the unexpected consequences produce unexpectedly good results (even if unanticipated in advance).

It would be difficult right now to exaggerate the magnitude of change underway in the arena of world trade. In terms of gross volume-the amount of import and export-the sector has never been more expansive. The latest Department of Commerce figures testifies to this vitality: U.S. monthly export of goods was over $63 billion, imports of goods over $107 billon.

But aggregate numbers in the billions, besides being incomprehensible, only start to tell the story. In virtually every aspect of global commerce-manufacturing, trade finance, transportation, IT, trade agreements-the rules of the economic game are in flux. "The wave keeps cresting," observed Daniel Harris, a foreign service trade official currently 'on loan' to the National Association of Manufacturers to help integrate small- and medium-sized manufacturers into the world market, "and businesses will either learn to surf it or be drowned."

Amping up the uncertainty factor these days is 'the fog of war' as trade becomes enveloped by security concerns. The effect of new regulations, most of which are in only the earliest stages of implementation, remain to be felt. But it is already clear that the pre-9/11 era of free and easy movement of goods across borders and through ports is over.

Pessimists predict the 'net net' of this new context will be a severe downturn in the progress that has taken place in international trade since the formulation of the World Trade Organization a decade ago. But, to harken back to the law of unanticipated consequences, there are others-among whom we count ourselves-who predict a very different outcome. Rather than destroy global trade, we envision the ultimate result of heightened attention to improved tracking technology, management of data, and inter-governmental cooperation will end up vastly improving it.

Old-fashioned American initiative has been challenged to re-think trade flows for the sake of safety. In the process, entire new approaches to protecting the integrity and efficiency of commercial channels are destined to emerge. We have seen how military initiatives produce wholly unexpected civilian products-from the Internet to global positioning to Velcro. Just as certainly, we predict, we are destined to see undreamed of innovations in trade logistics stemming from inventions prompted by the war on terrorists.

It is with sadness that we note the passing of WORLD TRADE's longtime European Account Director Robert W. Kohorst. Bob was with the magazine from its inception in 1988, and, as founding publisher Drew Lawler observed, "made his mark on WORLD TRADE."