Upticks in world trade, as the global economy continues to awake from the doldrums of a long, sluggish dormancy, are evident in this year's revised WORLD TRADE 100 annual global trade review. In order better to serve readers, we have changed the format to reflect what's really going on within the global supply chain - rather than list companies, we now focus on the actual commodities that are being imported and exported by American manufacturers. And, based on that data, signs of renewal and growth are evident - but the air-pockets remain.

The biggest growth was in the import/export of industrial supplies and materials, which increased 14 percent in dollar value from 2002 to 2003. Next came food, feed and beverages, with a growth of nearly 12 percent. Giving evidence to the role the consumer has played in sustaining the economy in the contraction of corporate expansion, global trade in the consumer sector grew 8 percent. From there, however, things get 'iffy.' Automobiles were up 2.8 percent, capital goods 2.7 percent.

In terms of companies, retail produced the top global importers with Wal-Mart, Home Depot and Target leading the way as measured by container volume. On the export side, the biggest shipper was America Chung Nam (wastepaper). Other leaders include Weyerhaeuser and DuPont (see sidebar).

Trends in the top trading sectors are profiled below, with the biggest story in 2004 regardless of the sector being - surprise, surprise! - the impact of China! -Neil Shister

Please see the attached PDF files for listings of the top 50 U.S. imports and top 50 U.S. exports of goods by commodity:

• Top 50 Exports
• Top 50 Imports

Retail

In the retail sector, Wal-Mart remains at the top of the list both in terms of number of containers imported (471,000 in 2003), and in annual sales ($256 billion). Second-quarter net profits were strong, helped by leaner inventories and more full-price selling, as well as lower costs from overseas sourcing.

Success in the retail sector hinges on developing the most efficient and effective supply chain, as this will assist companies in preserving the highest margins. Indeed, the supply chain is the key to success in the 21st century, unlike the 1990s when trade names were the most important value drivers, assert analysts at Ernst & Young.

Large retailers are expected to increase their global sourcing of generically available merchandise, which is also cheaper because of low-cost manufacturing in many countries, such as China, for example. The sizeable influence wielded by these large companies has prompted a shift of various costs and risks back to the vendors.

"The clearest example of the retailers' ability to share in vendors' larger margins is the large financial vendor concessions for which retailers negotiate," according to recent industry report by Ernst & Young. "These vendor concessions can include any combination of a number of incentives, including volume allowances, or discounts offered by vendors as an inducement to purchase greater quantities of goods, and vendor compliance monies, which consists of money received for late or otherwise non-compliant shipments," among other items. "This multitude of vendor concessions can significantly reduce a retailer's purchasing, shipping, inventory, and even marketing costs, creating tremendous value in a retailer's sourcing function."

And, it doesn't end there. Vendors are routinely being asked to perform tasks that were traditionally reserved for the retailers themselves. "Retailers are now requiring concessions such as 'cross-docking,' direct-store delivery, consignment, scan-based trading, and automatic replenishment arrangements. Direct-store delivery arrangements require the vendor to ship directly to the retailer's stores, rather than merely shipping to a retailer's distribution center. Very often, the manufacturers are required to actually shelve the merchandise."

The outlook for this year is that U.S. retail sales will grow almost 7 percent, more than double last year's increase of 3 percent, according to a revised mid-year forecast from Ernst & Young. Jay McIntosh and Julie Kunkel, two of the firm's leading retail analysts, say, "The jump in retail sales in the first half came from improvements in the U.S. economy and stock market, growing job creation, and the mid-2003 tax rebate. We anticipate that retail sales in the second half of 2004 will not be as robust as the first half due to the impact that significantly higher gasoline prices, modest inflation in apparel, and the absence of a tax rebate will have on consumer spending."

Jonathan Gold, VP International Trade Policy, Retail Industry Leaders Association, says for 2005 the sector will remain focused on issues relating to China, such as the elimination of duties on textile and apparel, beginning January 1, that is sure to prompt a slew of safeguard cases, he predicts. And, while Asia remains attractive as a sourcing destination, he also says there are plenty of opportunities in Central and Latin America.

Paper

Here's a statistic to dizzy proponents of the paperless office: each year the U.S. paper industry alone consumes one billion trees. Yet, big numbers no longer translate into easy profits. In the past decade, upwards of $35 billion in annual forest product imports have flooded the United States, once American paper producers' exclusive domain. Even during the boom years of the late 1990s, when domestic demand for paper products surged by 3.5 million tons, imports represented over 90 percent of that growth. Little wonder, then, that global trade issues dominate the domestic industry outlook.

American paper producers have made worldwide elimination of tariffs their top international trade goal. Chilean paper products, for example, enjoy duty-free access to the U.S. market, but U.S. paper products are levied at six percent. With nearly three-quarters of the world's paper purchased outside the United States, that's no small problem. Ann Wrobleski, Vice President, International, at the American Forest & Paper Association (AF&PA), summarizes the bottom line: "They get zero from us, we want zero from them."

Next in the industry's sights are foreign government subsidies in the form of grants, low-interest loans, and loan forgiveness. "The traditional competition was Canada and Europe, but increasingly it's China, Japan, and Korea," Wrobleski says. "Given the levels of subsidization, they have rapidly expanding paper industries that are propped up by the government." Take the example of China. Because the country has so little forest coverage, U.S. manufacturers originally considered China's nascent consumer market theirs for the taking. Yet, "what China has done is that that they have imported large amounts of raw material so that they could make paper to turn around and sell," Wrobleski explains. The result: "We're competing with them both for China and here at home."

Of course, globalization means not only increased competition at home, but also new markets abroad. "It's increasingly a global industry," Wrobleski observes. "People have mills and timber resources in Latin America. They have mills in Europe and Asia. All the major players"-among them Weyerhaeuser, Georgia-Pacific, MeadWestvaco, and International Paper-"operate outside their own borders." And with good reason: over the past forty years, worldwide consumption of wood products has risen almost two-thirds, and experts expect another doubling by 2050.

Food

The $500 billion U.S. food industry remains among the most innovative of supposedly-mature market sectors. Though the top three supermarket sellers are still fresh bread, salty snacks, and cold cereal, each year manufacturers introduce over 22,000 new products from blue ketchup and vitamin-enriched caramels to frozen hot chocolate cups complete with ice-cold marshmallow bits.

On the largest level, top food imports are a relatively staid and steady list of tropical fruits and juices, canned seafood, cocoa, sugar, and spices. Hence, Dole Foods and Chiquita Brands leading positions in the World Trade 100. Increasingly, these companies are looking beyond the U.S. market to boost their bottom lines. "We successfully transitioned into the expanded European Union and are now building brand equity through new marketing investments in several of the new Central and Eastern European member states," Chiquita Chairman and CEO Fernando Aguirre commented on the release of the company's latest quarterly results. "We believe these programs will yield long-term benefits as we prepare for a tariff-only system by 2006."

For such food industry importers and exporters, big and small, as for American politicians, the hot topic today is bioterrorism. The country's recent bioterrorism act requires that the Food and Drug Agency be notified precisely what food products enter the country, where they have been manufactured, who ships them, and who receives them. Importers within and exporters without the United States must register both themselves and any overseas suppliers with the FDA. Foreign firms based overseas must further appoint a domestic agent to act as their representative to the government. A wine producer who exports either directly to retailers or to a U.S. importer, for example, would have to register his or her winery and hire an American agent.

"According to the FDA, there were a little over 400,000 facilities worldwide that had to be registered this year," reports analyst Brian Todd of The Food Institute, an information service for the food industry. "Fewer than half have completed the process." For foreign manufacturers, he says, the sticking point is appointing an agent in the United States. "That can be particularly difficult for companies that don't have any facilities or distribution plants in the United States. If the government starts rejecting shipments, it could end up slowing the import process down quite a bit."

Forest/Paper Products

The forest products industry naturally shares many of the same trade and logistics concerns as the paper sector, especially in the coveted Chinese market. Government subsidies that give Chinese companies an unfair competitive advantage are one, and China's pegging of the yuan to the dollar is another.

Nonetheless, China is "the next frontier," says Steven Rogel, Chairman, President and CEO of Weyerhaeuser. "In a country with 1.3 billion people, one need not look far to find opportunities. But people are only part of the equation. The Chinese economy is the real story. China is already accountable for 76 percent of the growth in world demand for pulp. In a few short years, it has evolved into one of the largest consumers of chemical pulp."

Since 1980, pulp imports into China have grown from half a million tons to nearly six million in 2003, a growth rate that is "unparalleled in our industry," says Rogel. "For the short term, then, we have an opportunity to help the Chinese meet their demand for pulp."

The importance of maintaining a healthy trade relationship between the U.S. and China cannot be overstated, Rogel believes. "All too often, we've seen trade relationships hampered by selfish legislation designed to benefit one group at the expense of others. We must use our trade associations wisely and ensure that they support free trade approaches."

The American Forest & Paper Association (AF&PA) is not only working to remove restrictive duties, but also non-tariff barriers. For instance, Japan and Korea have building codes that discriminate against using certain types of wood species, says Jacob Handelsman, Senior Director for International Research, AF&PA. The codes are designed to give preference to domestic species and constitute a barrier to imported wood species.

There is reason for optimism, though, says Handelsman, especially for exports. "Economic growth and demand are up worldwide, and the value of the dollar has made U.S. goods attractive."

The top executives at Weyerhaeuser, the largest U.S. exporter of forest products, are also upbeat. "We'll remain a North American company, but we'll become stronger by expanding our global footprint, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. We're already familiar with this part of the world, which contains ideal operating environments for us. Global expansion will also help us serve customers around the world. Our markets drive some of that need for change. They are becoming more global and more competitive," says Rogel.

Chemicals

The U.S. is the largest chemical producer in the world, accounting for over a quarter of total world production. There are 170 chemical companies with more than 2,800 facilities abroad and 1,700 foreign subsidiaries or affiliates operating in the United States.

A variety of global trade issues are at the top of the list for chemical executives, but there's one that all continue to share, according to Charles Swanson, Ernst & Young Partner and Sector Leader for Americas Chemical, based in Houston. "The management of chemical companies tends to be focused on two primary areas. The first is cost control," he says. "Cost control-being a low-cost provider-is pretty critical in being able to survive in this industry."

Companies have come up with innovative means to remain competitive, explains Swanson. "One way is to form joint ventures with competitors. Companies build one plant together that will manufacture a particular product for both companies. When world demand for that product grows to the point where you can justify building second plant, the companies will split up and each takes a plant. It's a creative solution to preventing excess capacity."

Like so many other manufacturing sectors, the chemical industry also has its eyes on China for future market growth. "The country's attractive because it offers low-cost labor and manufacturing. The other consideration is the availability and cost of their fuel." Fuel is a major consideration for the chemical industry. "That's their feedstock, not only for the operation of their facilities, but fuel is also a direct feedstock into chemical products, especially for the petrochemical industry."

In fact, rising fuel prices are hurting the industry. "Nobody would have guessed that prices would have reached the level they are now. Some chemical companies will operate hedging programs to try and smooth out the impact of energy prices. They essentially buy fuel needs 6-, 12-, and 18-months in advance at fixed prices." But the pain of higher prices will be felt eventually, says Swanson, who adds that the problem "is a chronic one, yet it's really about supply and demand. We've got these high energy prices with really no political or terrorist disruption (as the cause)."

"Any downstream manufacturing, including chemical, management team should be focused on the short- and long-term strategy for dealing with the fuel cost issue. It could mean that chemical companies will try and get longer-term subsidies out of governments that have the energy resource base and can afford to do that, like Saudi Arabia and some other Middle Eastern countries."

Industry experts, like Sushan Demirjian, Manager of International Trade at the American Chemistry Council, say their job is to seek a level playing field in the global trade arena. The worldwide elimination of tariffs through WTO negotiations is a top priority, as is the harmonization of various regulatory systems around the world. In July, WTO member nations rejuvenated global trade talks and pushed forward a plan that would eventually reduce tariffs on chemicals.

Beverages

"The Indian Corn, or Maiz, proves the most useful Grain in the World," wrote English botanist John Lawson in his early eighteenth century expedition of America. "The Stalks bruis'd and boil'd make very pleasant Beer." With such testimonies to their credit, malt beverages, whose brewers dominate the beverage sector of the World Trade 100, may claim the mantle of world trade's oldest and most venerable product category. Though U.S. sales declined in early 1990s with the doubling of the federal excise tax on the product, an increase in the population of adults over the age of twenty-one led to slow, but steady growth for the past five years. Today, the $175 billion industry ships more than 200 million barrels a year to wholesalers.

Major trends in the field over the last decade include a tripling in the number of malt beverage brands to 2,800 and septupling of the number of domestic brewers to 1,800. That said, brands of international giants like Heineken (Heineken, Amstel Light, Murphy's Irish Amber) and Interbrew (Bass Ale, Rolling Rock, Stella Artois) face little threat from the microbrewery vogue. "Heineken's strategy in the U.S.A. is to grow its premium brands within the import segment, the fastest growing beer segment in the U.S.A," the company reported in a letter to investors this June. Added Marc Bolland, a member of the company's Executive Board, "Heineken USA will benefit from a broader portfolio of strong premium brands and a larger scale."

Indeed, imports have grown each year for the past decade, more than doubling in sales during that period to take approximately twelve percent of the total market. While overall industry volume is predicted to rise 1.5 percent at most this year, imports are increasing as much as five times faster. In an otherwise mature industry, such growth is remarkable, says Eric Shepard, executive editor of Beer Marketer's Insights: "Beer is very heavy, so it's very expensive to ship out of the country. If you drink Heineken almost anywhere else in the world, it will likely not be made in the Netherlands, but somewhere close by. The United States is unique in that imports still have a cachet."

Accordingly, U.S. brewers have expanded abroad as much through foreign licensing and factories as exports. Sales are strong for licensed American beers in Canada and the United Kingdom, for example, and Anheuser-Busch recently built a brewery in China. All the same, imports, not exports, remain the big story. "Out of over 200 million barrels, the total export business is only 2 to 3 million barrels," Shepard notes.

Meanwhile, major mergers such as this year's Interbrew-Ambev and Coors-Molson pairings have made the nationality of corporate brewers more nebulous. Anheuser-Busch advertisements this summer went so far as to accuse rival Miller Brewing Company of being un-American because its parent company is based in South Africa. Jingoistic jabs notwithstanding, "the industry is becoming increasingly global," Shepard says. "That's the nature of business today. It's just come a little late to brewing."

Furniture Manufacturing

Americans put their money where their feet are, as consumer spending on residential furniture and bedding rose almost three percent last year to $72 billion. Retailers and importers, however, not domestic manufacturers, reaped the windfall. For U.S. furniture manufacturers, business dipped over two percent. Nearly 16,000 American production workers-almost ten percent of the total domestic workforce in the sector-lost their jobs. Meanwhile, new furniture imports have skyrocketed to nearly a third of the market and rising. In the past decade, exports from China alone have more than quadrupled to displace Canada as the top furniture supplier to the United States.

"From a logistics point of view, sourcing of furniture is heavily driven by price," explains Stefan Wille, President of AKTRIN Furniture Information Center, an industry consultancy. "North American manufacturers selling right in the United States can deliver goods and respond to style changes and consumer complaints much faster than any foreign source, but price remains the overwhelming factor."

Longer than most major manufacturing sectors, the labor-intensive furniture industry has followed low-cost workers. Given this history, Wille takes exception with the idea that Southeast Asian manufacturers invaded the North America market with inexpensive products. "It's exactly the other way around," he argues. "North American manufacturers and retailers went out on acquisition missions and linked up with Southeast Asian companies in order to find new sources of inexpensive furniture. The technology and the designs and to some extent even the marketing skills have been taught and brought over to them by the North American buyers."

Whatever the ultimate origins of the foreign deluge, domestic manufacturers complain Pacific Rim countries now undercut them with unfair subsidies, undervalued currencies, and illegal dumping. Congress, for one, is convinced. As of June of this year, bedroom furniture from China are subject to graduated anti-dumping duties as high as 400 percent. "Of course, it's being fought tooth and nail by retailers like Ashley Furniture deprived of those inexpensive sources," says Wille. What's more, lost domestic production may well shift again rather than return to the United States. Already, Wille says, "now mainland China is burdened with this tariffs, so production has moved to Vietnam. It will always find its way to the lowest-cost suppliers."

Major American manufacturers have adapted to this reality by incorporating imports in their offerings. Industry leaders like Furniture Brands and Lifestyle Furniture have become assemblers as well as manufacturers, importing parts and components and finishing the furniture in the United States. At the very least, furniture makers such as Ethan Allen now complement their U.S.-manufactured lines with foreign-made goods for a wider assortment. The result: record retail sales and earnings in the last fiscal year. Ethan Allen Chairman and CEO Farooq Kathwari, for one, expects the import-powered growth to continue: "During the last two weeks, we have seen increased traffic in our stores. Consumers appear cautiously optimistic about the state of the economy and we share that view for this coming quarter."

Electronics

The total value of consumer electronics shipments is estimated to grow 4 percent this year, reaching a dollar figure of just under $100 billion, says the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA).

Several factors are helping to sustain the expansion, including "the double-edged sword of China," remarks the industry group, which is both "a source of low-cost production for existing manufacturers and the genesis of a new crop of affordable brands."

Yet, the industry has been challenged by the effects of deflation brought on by stiffer competition and the phase-out of analog products. "Consumers have shifted their focus away from the old analog products with such speed the new products haven't always been able to fill the gap, causing industry growth to contract somewhat over the past few years. Some also wonder about growing consumer confusion over the dizzying array of product choices, creating a greater challenge of keeping our customers educated, invested, and at the table," notes the CEA.

Nonetheless, the consumer electronics industry is expected to get a big boost from the automotive industry, it seems. The Telematics Research Group (TRG) states, "The automotive interior is emerging as the next battleground for consumer digital devices. From telematics to back-seat entertainment systems, the vehicle is fast becoming a mobile media center on wheels, capable of managing content and information for entertainment, productivity, or safety."

TRG analysts add that, "DVD entertainment systems, in-vehicle phone solutions, GPS navigation and satellite radios are bright spots for aftermarket or OEM suppliers. Premium audio systems are leading this trend, but other devices are quickly coming into the picture."

The manufacture of consumer electronics is also experiencing a major shift. By 2007, it's expected that China and the rest of the world will account for 40 percent of world production, and Europe, North America, and Japan only 60 percent. This is a remarkable, given that Europe, North America, and Japan used to clearly dominate with over 90 percent of world electronics production.

Consumer Products Manufacturing

One of the best illustrations of how supply chain excellence is emerging as the key indicator of survivability in the global marketplace is within the highly competitive consumer products manufacturing sector. By its very nature, the industry's supply chains are highly complex-sourcing takes place in multiple countries, both industrialized and developing; it involves numerous brand-name products in a fast-moving consumer environment; and there's a high reliance on various modes of transportation and logistical coordination.

Procter & Gamble has been hard at work fine-tuning its supply chain, both internally and externally. By 2008, P&G's Consumer-Driven Supply Network (CDSN) is expected to turn some impressive results for the company, starting with a 50 percent reduction in out-of-stocks for consumers; a 50 percent reduction in inventory for both P&G and retailers; a 50 percent reduction in response time from consumer purchase to replenishment; and a 20 percent reduction in logistics costs.

At the same time, the consumer products giant is increasingly looking outside of its traditional markets, such as the U.S., and trying hard to gain market share in developing (and highly lucrative) markets-namely India. In so doing, it's running up against fierce competition from the likes of rival Unilever. P&G's CEO A.G. Lafley told analysts in May that India "is a walled city and our friends at Unilever...have been there for 50 to 150 years." He added, though, "India is obviously worth it in the long run."

The company's strategy for getting more of a foothold in India was gleaned from some earlier missteps in other developing markets. This time around, P&G will rely on low-cost manufacturing methods to get product prices down to a level where consumers can better afford them. Too, it will use more local labor rather than expatriates to run its Indian operations.

Indeed, a company's supply chain strategy often times has to be adjusted to fit the idiosyncrasies of the country in which it is operating. Consider of few of Kraft Foods' unconventional means for keeping its product moving in China. For one, the company prefers to deal with mid-sized logistics providers rather than the largest providers. That way, they're assured to get priority treatment if delays occur because they rank as the smaller provider's 'top customer.'

Kraft has also been forced to get creative when it comes to packing its product. There's a high pilferage rate on goods transported by rail in China, and although the problem has been easing somewhat, Kraft has taken to placing the more expensive products at the bottom of the container. In that way, when rail cars are broken into, it's usually the inexpensive product near the doors that's lifted.

Auto Manufacturing

"The dominant issue for the automakers, especially in the customs and trade areas, has been security," says Steve Gardon of Ernst & Young's Customs and International Trade Group, based in Detroit. The level of cooperation between the automakers and Customs has been exceptional, he explains, and both sides are trying to strike a balance between "heightening the level of security without impeding trade."

Obviously, there's incentive for automakers to work with Customs. "Their volumes are massive. GM has 6,000 to 7,000 border crossings each year into the U.S. alone, and a lot of them are JIT." Yet, while automakers' supply chains have been adjusted to accommodate the new security regulations, "it's still been somewhat of a burden. Extra compliance has its costs."

The extent of some of those costs can only be imagined. For instance, "automakers are very concerned about what's going to happen if the U.S. government raises the risk level or orange or red. What if there's a catastrophe and the borders get shut down? That's the real unknown that concerns everyone. That's why you see a lot of participation in programs like C-TPAT (Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism) and FAST (Free And Secure Trade)."

Customs has acknowledged that importers who are participants in these types of compliance programs will be treated as 'preferred' customers, and would likely be the first ones allowed to resume cross-border trade if there are any disruptions.

Aside from security, the other focus for the automakers, and by extension their suppliers, has been China. "For the auto Tier 1 suppliers, I can't think of one who isn't involved in setting up not just one, but several joint ventures in China. Some of them are dedicated to serving a domestic customer, and others are just an export platform. They're just following the automotive companies. For the most part, they see the rest of the world has having fairly mature markets that are very price competitive. But, China is a huge growth area. Companies like Delphi, for example, are saying that a substantial amount (up to 10 percent) of their North American parts sales will be coming from China. If you consider the company's sales are roughly $30 billion plus, that's huge."

While China may be a manufacturer's panacea in terms of lower production costs, there's another side of the coin-the logistical ability to handle the skyrocketing volumes that will come into the U.S. "Already the numbers of containers coming into West Coast ports like Sea-Tac and Los Angeles-Long Beach have grown tremendously. There are real concerns about future capacity."

DaimlerChrysler, meanwhile, is building a new factory in Toledo, Ohio, in a partnership with three foreign suppliers. The deal is described as "a modification in the business model," according to J. Ferron, senior analyst at PricewaterhouseCoopers' automotive consulting practice. It marks the first time suppliers have invested along with their customer (DaimlerChrysler) in building a U.S. factory complex. "This is 'insourcing,' not outsourcing," commented a Chrysler spokesperson.

Side Bar: DuPont's Formula For Success Is Paying Off

Chemical companies have been hit hard by rising oil prices but DuPont is faring better than others, in no small part due to its success as a global trader. Under CEO Charles O. Holliday, DuPont's strategy is to become a 'sustainable growth' company as it transforms its culture from a 'chemical' company to a 'science' company. The 55 year old industrial engineer, who began working at DuPont over 30 years ago as a summer job, sees international trade and a worldwide presence as vital elements in achieving the company's vision.

"As pleased as we are with our progress," reported Holliday in the latest annual report, "there is still enormous benefit to be gained from streamlining and standardizing our processes and by devoting more resources to new products and services and in emerging economies such as China and Central and Eastern Europe. We are now operating in a very different environment in terms of cost inputs. As a result, we are placing increased emphasis on margins and on distinguishing between commodity products and products that can support premium prices."

China figures prominently in DuPont's agenda. Its potential is vast but so are the difficulties. "We see China as a big logistics and distribution challenge," Holliday recently told Fortune Magazine. "We build smaller facilities close to our customers to maximize the logistics, as opposed to a big, cost-efficient plant. The other thing about China is they are turning out about 300,000 engineers a year, compared with 62,000 in the U.S., and they are technically just as good as our crop in the U.S. So we are doing more of our engineering in China."

Entering emerging markets imposes its own specialized analysis for a sophisticated global trader like DuPont. Looking at national measures can be misleading. "Averages can be terrible," observes Holliday, "because they can be much different in the cities than in the country." DuPont's metric for determining a country's readiness for the agricultural products, automotive products, or construction products it services is $1000 GDP per capita. Even that, however, can be deceptive because of disparities between coastal areas and the interior. So DuPont does regional breakdowns. "We look at Jakarta versus the rest of Indonesia, for example," Holliday explains. "Jakarta might have a GDP of $1,500 per capita, yet the rest of the country is at $800. We might put in distribution around the major cities if we can't get it into the entire country yet."